Introduction

A political realignment, in its most basic sense, is a prominent change in a political party—what it stands for, the wedge issues that distinguish it from the other parties, and who is included in the coalition of the political party. This change can happen suddenly with a major conflict or issue that disrupts the existing social order—like the Great Depression—or more gradually as the emergence of new issues and significant social, economic, and cultural changes force voters to reconsider existing political affiliations—like the rise of the technocratic voting demographic.

Throughout US history, our political parties have reconfigured time and time again: the emergence of the New Deal Coalition in the 1930s, the racial realignment from Republicans to Democrats during the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s, the embrace of Reagan economic policies drawing in typically Democrat-leaning working-class white voters in the 1980s.

‍Walter Burnham's theory on political realignments posits that these transformative shifts occur every 30–40 years, meaning we have either recently completed a political realignment or are currently experiencing one. The 2024 election results demonstrated ideological changes within both major parties. The Democratic coalition now spans from democratic socialists to former Republicans, while traditional voting patterns have shifted—for example, non-college voters across racial lines increasingly support Republicans. While pundits and politicians attempt to make sense of this realignment, democracy experts have identified a troubling concern: support for democratic institutions and the rule of law is unevenly distributed across our political coalitions. Democracy 2076 recognizes this challenge and is committed to preparing for the next political realignment. By investing resources now to shape that future transformation, we can work to ensure that all major political parties emerge as genuinely pro-democracy.

Political Realignments for 2076

Democracy 2076 is founded on the belief that the US democracy field needs to engage in long-term strategic thinking in addition to short-term defensive work. We believe that it is not enough to protect democracy in a time when so many are dissatisfied with its outcomes. Rather, we need to reimagine democracy for the next generation, embracing all of the complexities and challenges we are likely to face over the next 50 years. A core piece of that mission is understanding how US political alignments may be shaped over the long term.

The Spectra

Through a comprehensive synthesis of over 100 research pieces, expert interviews, and surveys across the political spectrum, we identified 17 new axes of political polarization that transcend the traditional left-right divide. Our qualitative methodology prioritized diverse knowledge sources—from grassroots perspectives to academic analysis. By drawing on the expertise of our participants, we were able to capture insights from within a variety of communities before those insights could be gleaned in polling or election returns. As a result, we were able to define and refine the spectra based on a range of types of evidence. These newly identified spectra represent fundamental changes in how political coalitions and divisions are forming, providing a framework for designing interventions that help us move towards a pro-democracy future. These axes include:

The Scenarios

Bringing together a cross-ideological, cross-experiential cohort of community leaders, we engaged in a collaborative process to develop evidence-based scenarios about the future of US political parties. Utilizing a horizon scanning methodology—where participants identified relevant insights from a variety of inputs, including conversations with their communities, social media posts they saw, and articles they read—we identified emerging themes that would impact future political parties. We ultimately created five scenarios of the future, each with different outcomes for the political coalitions’ beliefs in democracy and how these new spectra divisions could reshape American politics. In our workshops with participants and briefings with external stakeholders, we iterated the scenarios based on feedback, improving their plausibility based on how key social, economic, and institutional dynamics may unfold and defining the wedge issues, key political ideologies, and seismic shifts that mark each scenario. Our final scenarios for US democracy in 2054 include:
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Scenario 1: Climate Adaptation vs. Transformation

Both major parties are pro-democracy, split by divergent strategies for resilience.

Scenario 2: Cultural Revivalism and Strategic Exclusion

Both major parties drift toward authoritarian-adjacent governance under the banner of revival and order.

Scenario 3: Democracy Under Siege

The right-leaning party is marked by its authoritarian populism and is challenged by a pro-democracy coalition active at the local and regional levels.

Scenario 4: Left Behind

The Democratic Party is marked by authoritarian populism and is challenged by liberal-proceduralist conservatism from the Republican Party.

Scenario 5: Fractured Democracy—A Three-Bloc Patchwork

Rather than a clean red–blue divide, the US resembles a mosaic of clashing jurisdictions, a “fractured democracy” shaped by regional power, ideological silos, and contested truths.

The Signposts

Ultimately, we used the scenarios to produce signposts that will help us determine if we are on the likely path for each scenario, and, therefore, moving towards or away from pro-democracy political coalitions. If the scenarios are the “what,” then signposts are the “how.” We identified potential early indicators that can help us assess whether a scenario is beginning to take shape. This included pulling out one or two themes that may currently feel implausible and asking: What would have to change to make this possible? What should we be watching for? For example, in Scenario 4, which includes an authoritarian Democratic Party, the signposts we identified include favourable referencing of authoritarian regimes and figures in mainstream Leftist discourse and the surging of anti-elite rhetoric and negative sentiment towards traditional party leadership (some of which is already observable today). These signposts and others must be—and will be—revisited and updated with time, new insights, and feedback. They can serve as a roadmap to understand what we are heading towards and how to shift focus and resources as needed.

We approach this effort as an initial assessment of patterns and scenarios beginning to emerge. Our process is intentionally iterative and will be continuously updated as conditions shift. As such, the frameworks laid out in this report are only as strong as our willingness to continually test, challenge, and adapt them. This report serves not as a fixed forecast, but as an invitation to be agents of our next political realignment to ensure a more democratic future.

Learnings and Recommendations

The Implications of Issue Prominence

Our research reveals how issues become polarized once they gain political prominence. Democracy itself—formerly nonpartisan—has become increasingly divisive over the past decade, partly due to heightened attention from movements and organizing efforts. In scenarios where both parties support democracy or embrace multi-racial identities, these issues cease to be politically divisive. This creates a paradox: effective organizing requires raising awareness, which inevitably activates both allies and opponents. This is not a call to avoid discussing important issues, but rather an observation that an issue becoming more “mainstream” tends to generate polarization.

Importance of Emphasizing Protopian Stories

At the conclusion of the process, participants asked for more scenarios where both parties are pro-democracy, revealing a hunger for pathways to positive futures. They recognized that their own negativity bias constrained the scenario-building process—even with neutral prompting, they struggled to surface positive signals without active guidance. This reflects broader cultural challenges: only 8% of democracy stories in film and TV depict the future, and only half show healthy democracies. We want to encourage storytellers to imagine diverse political futures and will deliberately cultivate preferred pro-democracy scenarios in future iterations.

Developing Clarity on Left-Wing Authoritarianism

Historic trends show that authoritarianism is not confined to one side of the political spectrum. Long-term mitigation requires understanding how democratic institutions can be undermined from multiple political directions. The political Left must develop clear frameworks for distinguishing between policy preference disagreements and fundamental disagreements about democratic governance itself, including internal mechanisms to evaluate whether tactics advance or undermine democratic values. The goal is principled and consistent defense of democracy regardless of from which political direction authoritarian threats emerge.

Understanding Emerging Axes of Political Division and Alignment

Current political alignments and divisions are insufficient for understanding those we are seeing today and predicting the ones to come. Attitudes on one issue no longer clearly predict positions on another. This presents stakeholders with a variety of challenges and opportunities: researchers can incorporate the 17 emerging axes into polling methodologies; issue-based advocates can engage in nuanced coalition-building by recognizing potential allies who agree on core issues but diverge elsewhere; and bridge-building efforts can focus on emerging wedge issues with less entrenched identity attachments as new spaces for productive conversation.

Impact on Participants

The strategic foresight process catalyzed a significant shift in how participants approached long-term pro-democracy work. While most aspired to think in generational terms, they acknowledged struggling to practice this amidst election cycle pressures and the sector's reactive mode. This was reflected in participants’ scoring an average of 2.15 out of 4 in response to the question, “What is your confidence in pro-democracy actors to respond to economic, political, environmental, cultural, and technological change over the next 30–50 years?” By the process's conclusion, these figures reversed dramatically: participants reported a 30% increase in their confidence that pro-democracy actors will respond to economic, political, environmental, cultural, and technological change over the next 30–50 years while demonstrating expanded capacity for scenario thinking, gaining practical tools for navigating uncertainty and planning iteratively rather than reactively. Beyond individual mindset shifts, participants reframed coalition work itself: moving from crisis-driven responses to proactive, visionary strategies that bridge ideological divides, center intergenerational responsibilities, and intentionally incorporate diverse perspectives to surface opportunities and identify blind spots earlier. As one participant reflected, "Democracy is a human enterprise. I am more interested in working with individuals who value human beings and will seek ways for them to flourish—regardless of ideology and identity politics." These outcomes suggest that the strategic foresight process itself—not merely the scenarios it produced—served as a powerful catalyst for building the adaptive capacity essential to imagine, test, and co-create more democratic futures.

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“Democracy is a human enterprise. I am more interested in working with individuals who value human beings and will seek ways for them to flourish—regardless of ideology and identity politics.”

—Participant Quote

How you can use this report

This report is both a synthesis and a strategic tool. It is designed to inform strategy, identify opportunities for new coalitional alignment, and spark new investment in pro-democracy futures. You might find it useful in the following ways:

Broad taxonomy and analysis of possible political divides

This report offers a comprehensive view of future axes of political realignment based on research of existing articles and scholarship, original interviews, and surveys that created 17 emerging spectra of political ideology.

Identification of possible future challenges

This report intends to help practitioners locate their blind spots, assess what may become challenges for their communities, and identify opportunities for intervention. It supports actors in recognizing where to build knowledge, where to partner, and new ways to consider existing issues—such as public health or climate work—as political realignment work.

Scenarios as Strategic Tools

The co-created scenarios offered in this report can be utilized as both warning signs and inspiration. They can catalyze new questions, highlight neglected futures (including underexplored scenarios like Left-wing authoritarianism), build empathy, and prompt proactive strategic planning.

Developing Communities of Practice

This report helps establish parameters for a broader, interdisciplinary community of practice around future pro-democracy political coalitions. It points toward key actors to engage, new groups to bring in, and zones of total inattention where urgent work is needed—whether to catalyze potential leaders or intervene in emerging ideological vacuums.

Ongoing Signposting & Monitoring

The signposts outlined in this report can serve as early indicators for which realignment scenarios may be materializing. This opens the door to annual or real-time tracking efforts that help funders, organizers, and policymakers respond to developments as they unfold.

Learnings and Recommendations

The Implications of Issue Prominence

Throughout this process, we better understand the dynamic of an issue becoming prominent in a political system and then consequently becoming divisive. Take the issue of democracy, for example. What used to be considered a relatively nonpartisan, noncontroversial topic—support for strengthening and improving American democratic systems—has become significantly more polarized in the past decade. We hypothesize that, in some ways, it is because of the increasingly overt discussion and movements around this particular issue that contributed to its polarization. In various scenarios with which participants interacted, where both parties are pro-democracy, the continuation of democratic institutions is not a significant political issue. Similarly, in scenarios where both parties are multi-racial and not defined by race or racism, race is not a divisive political issue.

There is, of course, a double-edged sword to all of this. To effectively organize––gathering resources, raising consciousness, and generating impact––around political issues, those issues need to be discussed. This is not, therefore, a recommendation to organizers and activists to stop bringing attention to important and occasionally divisive political issues. Rather, it is an observation of a pattern that occurred throughout our research of how bringing attention to a particular issue will activate both potential allies and opponents.

Importance of Emphasizing Protopian Stories

At the end of the scenario-generating process, participants reflected that they wished we had more scenarios where both parties are pro-democracy. They were naming a hunger for more pathways to pro-democracy futures and the need to cultivate their imagination for those stories. 

Participants recognized that the scenarios were developed based on the scans that our participants had given us. The process of co-creation meant that the scenarios were only going to be as protopian—a term for a society that makes incremental, ongoing progress and improvements, rather than aiming for a perfect, utopian state or falling into a dysfunctional, dystopian one—as the scans they submitted indicated. At the end of the process, participants reflected that they wished they had been more focused on surfacing the positive signs that they are seeing in the world.

This realization shows that even after designing a process that was neutral as to the types of scans about the future, participants were still constrained by their own negativity bias and needed more active guidance and support to pay attention to positive signals of change. Additionally, this challenge reveals just how strong the dystopian democracy narrative is in our culture. We have also seen this dynamic reflected in our research into media depictions of future democracies: only 8% of stories about democracy in film and TV are about the future, and only half depict healthy democracies. We’d encourage storytellers to consider how to tell more stories about the future with vastly different imaginations for how our politics could look. Additionally, in future iterations of this project, we want to more deliberately cultivate stories about preferred pro-democracy futures, potentially building out multiple scenarios with a variety of outcomes.

Developing Clarity on Left-Wing Authoritarianism

Current knowledge, advocacy, and resources within the democracy movement are focused primarily on countering authoritarianism from the political right—in response to the reality that current authoritarian behaviors and trends are concentrated on the political right. However, we know from historic trends that authoritarianism does not stay confined to one political party or side of the political spectrum when it takes hold within social, political, and cultural systems. Preparing to better mitigate the authoritarian trend in the long term will require understanding how democratic institutions can be undermined from multiple political directions.

The political Left must develop clear frameworks for distinguishing between policy preference disagreements and fundamental disagreements about democratic governance itself. This might include internal mechanisms to evaluate whether organizational tactics, public statements, and advocacy strategies advance democratic values or inadvertently adopt authoritarian approaches. Using hypothetical scenarios of Left-wing authoritarianism—like the ones laid out in this report—in pro-democracy education and strategic planning can demonstrate that defending democracy is genuinely nonpartisan by showing how any political preference can be implemented in ways that either strengthen or undermine democratic institutions.

The goal is not to create false equivalencies, but to ensure that defense of democracy remains principled and consistent regardless of from which political direction authoritarian threats emerge. This also means recognizing that defending democratic institutions may require working with those who hold different policy preferences but share a commitment to democratic governance.

Understanding Emerging Axes of Political Division and Alignment

This first phase of our project emphasizes the ways in which current political alignments and divisions are proving insufficient for understanding those we are seeing today and predicting the ones to come. Organizations and leaders across sectors should recognize that attitudes on one issue no longer reliably predict positions on another, creating both challenges and opportunities for strategic engagement.

For Researchers and Polling Organizations: Consider incorporating the 17 emerging axes of political division into polling methodologies and weighting systems. Just as researchers and pollsters began weighting for education to improve polling accuracy after the 2016 election,  these new dimensions may be crucial for representative sampling and predictive modeling.

‍For Issue-Based Organizations: Interrogate assumptions about political alignment based on traditional party affiliation. Someone's position on one issue cannot reliably predict their stance on others. This will likely require more nuanced coalition-building strategies and careful attention to mission focus. These new alignments highlight emerging potential allies who agree on your core issue but diverge on others, and engaging them will require care and clarity.

‍For Bridge-Building and Peace-Building Efforts: Leverage these new political spectra to create unexpected coalitions. For example, facilitating dialogue between public health advocates or between individual health sovereignty supporters may reveal shared values and common ground that transcends traditional left-right divisions and allow for a focus on common ground before discussing areas of disagreement. Focusing on emerging wedge issues where people have less entrenched identity attachments may create space for more productive conversation.

Impact on Participants

The strategic foresight process also catalyzed a significant shift in how participants approached long-term pro-democracy work. Despite many participants reporting aspirations to think in generational terms, many acknowledged struggling to practice this amidst the realities of election-cycle pressures and the constant reactive mode of the larger sector. This was reflected in participants’ scoring an average of 2.15 out of 4 in response to the question, “What is your confidence in pro-democracy actors to respond to economic, political, environmental, cultural, and technological change over the next 30-50 years?” By the process's conclusion, these figures reversed dramatically: participants reported a 30% increase in their confidence that pro-democracy actors will respond to economic, political, environmental, cultural, and technological change over the next 30-50 years while demonstrating expanded capacity for scenario thinking, gaining practical tools for navigating uncertainty and planning iteratively rather than reactively. They described gaining practical tools for navigating uncertainty, scanning for emerging signals, and planning iteratively rather than reactively.

Beyond individual mindset shifts, participants reframed their understanding of coalition work itself—moving from crisis-driven responses to proactive, visionary strategies that bridge ideological divides and center intergenerational responsibilities. Many emphasized newfound agency in shaping possible futures rather than passively awaiting outcomes. The process equipped them not just to acknowledge foresight's importance but to actively practice it, encouraging them to integrate scenario planning into their organizational strategies. Participants described becoming more intentional about bringing a plurality of perspectives into their strategies, both to surface opportunities for impact earlier and to identify potential blind spots. This mindset shift extended to their understanding of pro-democracy coalitions themselves. Many framed their evolution throughout our time together as moving from reactive to proactive, no longer waiting for crises to dictate priorities. They described how this type of planning and thinking opened up space for imagining what coalition work could look like. When asked how this process changed their views about pro-democracy political coalitions in the future, one participant said, “Democracy is a human enterprise. I am more interested in working with individuals who value human beings and will seek ways for them to flourish—regardless of ideology and identity politics.” 

These outcomes suggest that the strategic foresight process itself—not merely the spectra, scenarios, and signposts it produced—served as a powerful catalyst for building the adaptive capacity essential to imagine, test, and co-create more democratic futures.

Introduction

The foresight methods used in this project were selected to explore the future of political realignment in the United States and identify possible pathways toward a future where all US parties are pro-democracy. 

Beyond the typical benefits of strategic foresight, the project’s most innovative contribution was its recognition that the expertise of communities identifying early signals of change through conversations should be valued just as highly as written and academic analysis of political shifts. The equal weighting of lived experience and formal research is what makes this project innovative within our sector.

The project followed a classic foresight arc: moving from the probable future to possible futures, with the ultimate intention that future users of the scenarios will use them to explore a preferred future. It began by assessing the current context and its underlying systems, then examined key shifts and emerging changes to explore alternative futures. Finally, it considered what these futures imply for the present—and how we might better prepare for or shape the future. 

Horizon 2045 were the foresight experts who supported phase 1 and most of phase 2. The School of International Futures (SOIF) provided foresight expertise for phase 2, starting with the third sensemaking session, phase 3, and phase 4.

Phase 1 - Mapping the present political landscape and realignment

Expert input: Delphi Studies and Interviews

A Delphi study is a structured, iterative process using multiple rounds of questionnaires and expert feedback to build consensus on complex issues. It was selected as a helpful tool to build consensus about what is changing while minimizing bias. Two sequential surveys were conducted to assess the US political landscape, its systemic drivers, and emerging shifts. A total of 15 leaders participated in the Delphi process.The process was supplemented by five interviews with experts from relevant fields.

Research Summary and Key Insights

An additional research summary, drawing on published literature including ten books and over 100 articles, described current political alignments, prominent ideological frameworks, and key wedge issues.

Emerging Axes of Political Division: A Framework for Spectra

The final product of this phase was the Emerging Axes of Political Division, which identified six key clusters where US society may align or fracture: Identity, Geography and Economics, Governance and Authority, Values, Demographics and Generations, and Political Structures and International Dynamics.

Each of these axes contains underlying polarity elements, understood as spectra or continua: for example, the spectrum between global/internationalist and nationalist/isolationist within the Political Structures and International Dynamics cluster. The result is 17 spectra along which political alignment may occur, not just at the poles but across the full range. These spectra form a framework to better understand current and future patterns of political alignment in US politics. Notably, they often do not map onto the current left-right axis—individuals and groups from both sides of the political continuum may be found at either end of a given spectrum. 

Additional feedback was gathered from peacebuilders who work in the US and abroad and researchers, including people who lead advocacy centers and think tanks on both sides of the left-right divide. This input was collected through a small group gathering at a conference and via email.

Phase 2 - Exploring change: scanning, scenarios, and testing

Horizon Scanning and Workshop 1

Horizon scanning examines current and future changes in the external environment, including those not yet widely visible. It surfaces weak signals (early signs of emerging change that may indicate future disruption), challenges assumptions, and builds shared understanding of possible future change across diverse perspectives. 

A group of 13 community leaders—12 of whom also submitted Delphi surveys—and foresight experts contributed to a collaborative scanning process that supplemented existing research. Scans explored potential drivers of political realignment, including demographic shifts, economic transformation, technological disruption, and cultural evolution. Participants submitted 120 scans, linking them to the spectra to test and refine the framework. This phase concluded with Sensemaking Workshop 1, where outputs were reviewed and clarified.

The Scenario Development

This group then pivoted to an intentional, collaborative effort to develop and refine five scenarios of the future. The output from the previous research informed the scenario-building process.

Two sets of scenarios were initially developed using different foresight approaches. As highlighted in the literature, different methods produce different types of futures, and combining them significantly enriches the quality and depth of foresight work. Drawing on the Spectrum of Scenario Methods, both approaches were intuitive in nature, but one was more values-based and inductive, while the other was more structured and deductive. These sets were later integrated into a single, cohesive set of five scenarios. This integration of deductive and inductive approaches allowed for a richer and more balanced scenario set, anchoring creativity in logic and structure.

Developing values-based, inductive scenarios

One set was built using the 17 spectra from the research, with each scenario written in three paragraphs to reflect future value shifts as indicated by the spectra, mapping the overall context very broadly.

A review ensured the scenarios also accounted for variations in democratic support and key wedge issues.

Developing structured, deductive scenarios

Another set of scenarios was developed using a structured approach based on different combinations of party “archetypes,” for instance, where both parties were pro-democracy, both authoritarian, or other variations. These scenarios included key wedge issues, underlying ideologies, support for democracy, and the demographics likely to form coalitions.

Two additional constraints were introduced: first, the US must remain a single federal country, meaning all regional governance would occur within that constraint; second, no Constitutional amendments should be necessary for any scenario to remain plausible. 

The resulting high-level outlines were further refined using ChatGPT. A first iteration prompted the 17 spectra to clarify the scenarios. A second iteration made use of the Delphi results, interviews, scanning data, and Workshop 1 outputs to improve them further. ChatGPT was also prompted to provide evidence from the project data and flag any points lacking data support or contradicting evidence. 

This process produced eight scenarios, which were refined into five distinct ones based on different democratic alignment between parties. Each was described in three to four paragraphs, addressing party ideologies, systemic changes, unexpected coalitions, wedge issues, spectra positions, demographics, and supporting or contradictory evidence.

All use of ChatGPT was carefully overseen to ensure accuracy, with the team verifying cited data and preventing fabrication.

Integrating the scenario sets and validation

Both scenario sets were reviewed in detail and incorporated any missing themes from the research. The two sets were then integrated into a final set of five scenarios, each about seven to eight paragraphs in length. This new set was reviewed again, refined for coherence, and improved where needed.

Scenario testing through expert and community reviews

After development, the scenarios were reviewed through several community and expert feedback loops:

‍Sensemaking Workshop 2: Scanning participants reviewed and suggested updates based on their initial scanning and conversations during the workshop

‍New Pluralists Community of Practice: Scenarios were tested for coherence with the political diversity working group.

‍Stakeholder briefing: External stakeholders recommended structural and language updates based on generally accepted scenario criteria: that they are future-oriented, credible, coherent as a set, yet distinctly different from one another. 

‍Sensemaking Workshop 3: Additional underrepresented themes were identified, prompting focused scanning. Participants submitted scanning inputs beforehand, which were then discussed during the workshop, with attention to their implications for democracy.

The set of scenarios was updated, incorporating feedback from the above engagements. 

Phase 3 - Exploring implications and scenario signposts

This phase identified the key implications of each scenario and mapped signposts—early indicators that a given scenario or some of its elements might be unfolding.

Sensemaking Workshop 4 and signposting

Participants identified the most critical shifts and enabling factors for each scenario, which were then translated into clear signposts and measurable variables to monitor over time.

Implications

Workshop participants briefly discussed the most significant implications for their communities and suggested a small list of possible responses. While not an immediate project focus, this set the stage for future action.

Scenario and spectra revisions and additions

Final scenario updates incorporated the signposts and implications from Workshop 4. The 17 spectra were also reviewed and revised where necessary, based on process outputs.

Phase 4 - Consolidation and further use

Translation into a report and other usable formats

The scenarios, spectra, signposts, and supporting data were translated into this report, designed to support workshops around scenario exploration, future planning, and decision making. 

This resource is intended for leaders, bridge-building and pluralism-focused organizations, funders mapping the field, and secondary audiences.

Books

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Sides, J., Tesler, M., & Vavreck, L. (2019). Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America. Princeton University Press. 

Gest, Justin (2022). Majority Minority. Oxford University Press. 

Kaplan, Seth D. (2023). Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One ZIP Code at a Time. Hachette Book Group. 

Ruffini, Patrick (2023). Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. Simon & Schuster. 

Grossmann, M., & Hopkins, D. A. (2024). Polarized By Degrees. Cambridge University Press. 

Madrid, M., & Bretón, M. (2024). The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy. Simon & Schuster. 

O’Brian, Neil A. (2024). The Roots of Polarization: From the Racial Realignment to the Culture Wars. The University of Chicago Press. 

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The Realignment.
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American Enterprise Institute. Defund the Police Cost Democrats Hispanic and Black Votes.
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The American Prospect. “Did We Just See Electoral Realignment?” November 7, 2024.
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APA PsycNet. Left-Wing Authoritarianism Is Not a Myth.
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The Association for Manufacturing Technology. The World Shifts to a New Economic Paradigm: Productivism.
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The Atlantic. The Anti-Social Century.
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The Atlantic. Throw More Parties: Rebuilding Connection in a Lonely Nation. January 2025.
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The Atlantic. “Why Are Americans So Geographically Polarized?” November 2018.
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‍https://cisneros.columbian.gwu.edu/spanish-speaking-latinos-are-more-prone-misinformation-exposure 

Clean Technica. Two Years In, The IRA Has Benefitted GOP Districts & Red States The Most.
‍https://cleantechnica.com/2024/08/14/two-years-in-the-ira-has-benefitted-gop-districts-red-states-the-most/ 

The Conversation. In 2024, independent voters grew their share of the vote, split their tickets and expanded their influence.
‍https://theconversation.com/in-2024-independent-voters-grew-their-share-of-the-vote-split-their-tickets-and-expanded-their-influence-245125 

The Conversation. Populism can degrade democracy but is on the rise − here’s what causes this political movement and how it can be weakened.
https://theconversation.com/populism-can-degrade-democracy-but-is-on-the-rise-heres-what-causes-this-political-movement-and-how-it-can-be-weakened-222323 

Deloitte. United States Economic Forecast.
‍https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html?id=us:2el:3dp:wsjspon:awa:WSJCMO:2024:WSJFY24

The Copper Courier. ‘MAHA’: What to know about the ‘movement’ gaslighting health and wellness followers in the US.
‍https://coppercourier.com/2024/10/31/maha-trump-rfk/ 

The Economist. “How Gaga Is MAHA.” November 20, 2024.
‍https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/11/20/how-gaga-is-maha 

Emerson College Polling. December 2024 National Poll: Young Voters Diverge from Majority on Crypto, TikTok, and CEO Assassination.
‍https://emersoncollegepolling.com/december-2024-national-poll-young-voters-diverge-from-majority-on-crypto-tiktok-and-ceo-assassination/ 

Emory University News Center. Left-wing authoritarians share key psychological traits with far right, Emory study finds.
‍https://news.emory.edu/stories/2021/09/esc_left_wing_authoritarians_psychology/campus.html 

Equis Research. A Preliminary Look at the 2024 Latino Vote. 
‍https://www.weareequis.us/research/prelimlatinovote2024 

Frameworks Institute. The State of American Culture 2023–2024.
‍https://www.frameworksinstitute.org/resources/the-state-of-american-culture-2023-2024 

Freedom House. Freedom on the Net 2024.
‍https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-states/freedom-net/2024 

Gallup. Democrats’ Identification as Liberal Hits New High.
‍https://news.gallup.com/poll/467888/democrats-identification-liberal-new-high.aspx 

Gallup. Gallup Trends Watch 2025.
‍https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/654479/gallup-trends-watch-2025.aspx 

Gallup. GOP Holds Edge in Party Affiliation for Third Straight Year.
‍https://news.gallup.com/poll/655157/gop-holds-edge-party-affiliation-third-straight-year.aspx 

Gallup. Independent Party Identification Tied for High; Democratic at New Low.
‍https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx 

Gallup. LGBTQ+ Identification in U.S. Now at 7.6%.
‍https://news.gallup.com/poll/611864/lgbtq-identification.aspx 

Gallup. Mixed Views Among Americans on Transgender Issues.
‍https://news.gallup.com/poll/350174/mixed-views-among-americans-transgender-issues.aspx 

Gallup. More Say Birth Gender Should Dictate Sports Participation.
‍https://news.gallup.com/poll/507023/say-birth-gender-dictate-sports-participation.aspx 

Gallup. In U.S., 71% Support Transgender People Serving in Military.
‍https://news.gallup.com/poll/258521/support-transgender-people-serving-military.aspx 

Gallup. Understanding Shifts in Democratic Party Ideology. https://news.gallup.com/poll/246806/understanding-shifts-democratic-party-ideology.aspx 

Gallup. U.S. Economic Confidence Ticks Down as Partisans' Views Shift.
‍https://news.gallup.com/poll/655859/economic-confidence-ticks-down-partisans-views-shift.aspx 

GLAAD. GLAAD 2020 Post-Election Poll: 81% of LGBTQ Voters Voted for President-Elect Biden; 93% of Registered LGBTQ Voters Turned Out to Vote and 25% Were First-Time Voters.
‍https://glaad.org/releases/glaad-2020-post-election-poll-81-lgbtq-voters-voted-president-elect-biden-93-registered/ 

The Hill. Approval of labor unions nears record high: Gallup.
‍https://thehill.com/business/4869155-poll-approval-labor-unions/ 

Human Rights Campaign. On National Voter Registration Day, Human Rights Campaign Foundation Report Finds More Than 95% of LGBTQ+ Adults are Registered to Vote, Nearly 75% are “Very” Motivated to Vote in 2024 Elections.
‍https://www.hrc.org/press-releases/national-voter-registration-day-human-rights-campaign-foundation-report-finds-more-than-95-of-lgbtq-adults-are-registered-to-vote-nearly-75-are-very-motivated-to-vote-in-2024-elections 

Institute for Citizens & Scholars. The Civic Outlook of Young Adults in America.
‍https://citizensandscholars.org/research/civic-outlook-of-young-adults/ 

Institute for Citizens & Scholars. The Civic Outlook of Young Adults in America: Gen Z Compared to National Baseline. 
‍https://citizensandscholars.org/research/civic-outlook-of-young-adults/gen-z-compared-to-national-baseline/ 

Interfaith America. Covering Religion and the 2024 Elections.
‍https://www.interfaithamerica.org/article/covering-religion-and-2024-elections/ 

ISD Global. How Women Seeking Information About Health and Wellness Are Recommended Sites That Promote Election Denialism.
‍https://www.isdglobal.org/digital_dispatches/how-women-seeking-information-about-health-and-wellness-are-recommended-sites-that-promote-election-denialism/ 

Latana. Democracy Perception Index 2023.
‍https://6389062.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/6389062/Canva%20images/Democracy%20Perception%20Index%202023.pdf 

Latitude Media. It’s conservative states that benefit most from the IRA.
‍https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/its-conservative-states-that-benefit-most-from-the-ira/ 

The Liberal Patriot. “Monk Mode” Is Destroying Young Men.
‍https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/monk-mode-is-destroying-young-men?utm= 

The Liberal Patriot. “The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition.”
‍https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-shattering-of-the-democratic 

McKinsey Global Institute. A new future of work: The race to deploy AI and raise skills in Europe and beyond.
‍https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/a-new-future-of-work-the-race-to-deploy-ai-and-raise-skills-in-europe-and-beyond 

Michigan Journal of Economics. Navigating Political Barriers and Economic Opportunities in America’s Green Transition.
‍https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mje/2025/01/06/navigating-political-barriers-and-economic-opportunities-in-americas-green-transition/ 

MIT Sloan. Who, What, and Where: AI Adoption in America.
‍https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/who-what-and-where-ai-adoption-america 

More in Common. How Americans Misunderstand Political Opponents’ 2024 Voting Decisions.
‍https://drive.google.com/file/d/1U_nrCPT62CL3ZsslBTkl_nwBWHb7q54A/view 

Morningstar. Why We Expect the Job Market’s Slowdown to Renew in 2024.
‍https://www.morningstar.com/markets/why-we-expect-job-market-slow-2024 

Mother Jones. “Musk, Trump, Men, and the 2024 Election Results.” November 2024.
‍https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/11/musk-trump-men-election-results-misogyny-sexism/ 

NBC Los Angeles. Nearly 30% of Gen Z adults identify as LGBTQ, national survey finds.
‍https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/national-international/nearly-30-of-gen-z-adults-identify-as-lgbtq-national-survey-finds/3321492/ 

NBC News. “LGBTQ Voters Move Away from Trump in 2024 Election.” 2024.
‍https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-politics-and-policy/lgbt-voters-away-from-trump-2024-election-record-change-rcna178939 

NBC News. West Virginia: How the Bluest State Became the Reddest.
‍https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/west-virginia-how-bluest-state-became-reddest-n697491 

New York Times. “Crunchy Moms, MAHA, and the RFK Jr. Voter.” December 18, 2024.
‍https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/18/well/crunchy-moms-maha-rfk-jr.html 

Newsweek. Putin Fueling Independence Plans in California, Texas: Republican.
‍https://www.newsweek.com/putin-fueling-independence-california-texas-2021257?ref=america2.news 

Niskanen Center. How Racial Realignment Ignited the Culture War.
‍https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-racial-realignment-ignited-the-culture-war/ 

NPR. “The Big Sort: Americans Move to Areas of Political Alignment.” February 18, 2022.
‍https://www.npr.org/2022/02/18/1081295373/the-big-sort-americans-move-to-areas-political-alignment 

NPR. The number of U.S. adults who identify as LGBTQ+ doubled in 12 years, new poll shows.
‍https://www.npr.org/2024/03/13/1238262638/lgbtq-adults-us-gallup-poll-bisexual-transgender 

NY Mag: Intelligencer. David Shor’s Postmortem of the 2020 Election.
‍https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/david-shor-analysis-2020-election-autopsy-democrats-polls.html 

Pew Research Center. 72% of Americans say the U.S. used to be a good example of democracy, but isn’t anymore.
‍https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/10/72-of-americans-say-the-us-used-to-be-a-good-example-of-democracy-but-isnt-anymore/ 

Pew Research Center. The Changing Demographic Composition of Voters and Party Coalitions. April 9, 2024.
‍https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-changing-demographic-composition-of-voters-and-party-coalitions/ 

Pew Research Center. Changing Partisan Coalitions in a Politically Divided Nation.
‍https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2024/04/PP_2024.4.9_partisan-coalitions_REPORT.pdf 

Pew Research Center. Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations.
‍https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/04/08/confronting-2016-and-2020-polling-limitations/ 

PMC (National Library of Medicine). Authoritarianism, religious fundamentalism, and the human prefrontal cortex,
‍https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3389201/ 

PMC (National Library of Medicine). Generational Trends in Political Identity and Behavior.
‍https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10763974/ 

PMC (National Library of Medicine). Public Support for Democracy in the United States Has Declined Generationally.
‍https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10662659/ 

Project Over Zero. Decoding LGBTQ Scapegoating.
‍https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f7f1da1ea15cd5bef32169f/t/667c295afa513e4c4ef0bacc/1719413082261/FINAL+Full+-+Decoding+LGBTQ+Scapegoating++%286%29.pdf 

PRRI. Gen Z and the Future of American Democracy: Draft Report. January 2024.
‍https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/PRRI-Jan-2024-Gen-Z-Draft.pdf 

ResearchGate. Public Support for Democracy in the United States Has Declined Generationally. 2023.
‍https://www.researchgate.net/publication/373991335_Public_Support_for_Democracy_in_the_United_States_Has_Declined_Generationally 

Reshoring Initiative. Reshoring Initiative 2022 Data Report.
‍https://reshorenow.org/content/pdf/2022_Data_Report.pdf 

Roosevelt Institute. Sea Change: A New Political-Economic Paradigm.
‍https://rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/sea-change/ 

San Antonio Current. To Texas With Love: What Russia’s support of TEXIT tells us about the frayed nature of U.S. politics.
‍https://www.sacurrent.com/news/to-texas-with-love-what-russias-support-of-texit-tells-us-about-the-frayed-nature-of-us-politics-33862864/?ref=america2.news 

Semafor. “No Matter Who Wins, the Country Is Moving to the Right.” October 15, 2024.
‍https://www.semafor.com/article/10/15/2024/no-matter-who-wins-the-country-is-moving-to-the-right 

SOAX. What percentage of Americans use social media?
‍https://soax.com/research/what-percentage-of-americans-use-social-media 

S & P Global. Slow adoption, profitability path hamper private equity interest in EVs.
‍https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2024/11/slow-adoption-profitability-path-hamper-private-equity-interest-in-evs-86086681 

Statista. Educational Attainment in the United States.
‍https://www.statista.com/statistics/184260/educational-attainment-in-the-us/ 

Success Knocks. AI’s Impact on the U.S. Economy: Trends for 2025 and Beyond.
‍https://successknocks.com/us-economy/ 

TIME. What Jimmy Carter Taught Us About Civic Populism.
‍https://time.com/7204540/what-jimmy-carter-taught-us-about-civic-populism/ 

Undark Magazine. “The MAHA Movement Gains Steam.” December 3, 2024.
‍https://undark.org/2024/12/03/trump-maha-movement-gains-steam/ 

Unidos US. Latino Voters and the 2020 Election: Part 1: Numbers, Trends, and Influence.
‍https://unidosus.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/unidosus_latinovoters2020election_072620.pdf 

Unidos US. New, Younger Latino Voters are Driving Shifts in Latino Voter Sentiment.
‍https://unidosus.org/press-releases/new-younger-latino-voters-are-driving-shifts-in-latino-voter-sentiment/ 

United States Census Bureau. Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060.
‍https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p25-1144.pdf 

The University of Chicago Energy Policy Institute. 2024 Poll: Americans’ Views on Climate Change and Policy in 12 Charts.
‍https://epic.uchicago.edu/insights/2024-poll-americans-views-on-climate-change-and-policy-in-12-charts/ 

Urban Institute. The Number of Hispanic Households Will Skyrocket by 2040. How Can the Housing Industry Support Their Needs?
‍https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/number-hispanic-households-will-skyrocket-2040-how-can-housing-industry-support-their-needs 

The Wall Street Journal. “GOP Cements Gains as the Working-Class Party Across Racial Lines.”
‍https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/gop-cements-gains-as-the-working-class-party-across-racial-lines-cd7e3ba5 

Yale Medicine. What Is MAHA? How Wellness Culture With Legitimate Concerns and Some Conspiratorial Beliefs Became a Movement Poised to Take Washington.
‍https://web.archive.org/web/20250130171521/https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/what-is-mahahow-wellness-culture-with-legitimate-concerns-and-some-conspiratorial-beliefs-became-a-movement-poised-to-take-washington/  (Page removed; previously available at https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/what-is-mahahow-wellness-culture-with-legitimate-concerns-and-some-conspiratorial-beliefs-became-a-movement-poised-to-take-washington/)