“All over the world, the income divide is being replaced by the education divide between the left and the right as cultural issues become more prominent relative to economic issues.”

“I think the percentage of people who are able to go to college will go down dramatically as universities lose federal support and they become a privilege only for the rich. I also think that AI will displace a lot of classic white collar jobs. Population patterns may shift as cities become increasingly expensive, but rural people will continue to hold disproportionate political power. Fewer people in our system will wield even more influence, with the representation in the Senate in particular becoming even more skewed to rural and right-wing, which will, in turn, continue to skew the judiciary further to the right. This will be an important factor as the version of democracy we have had in the recent past further erodes into an electoral autocracy.”

If and where you go to college “changes what industry you're in, what geography you're in, who you communicate with, what media you use, what social network you use.”

“The bigger pattern is that young people are voting more consistently with their social and cultural attitudes, so that [the salience of these attitudes is] increasing in importance for everyone, but especially for young people.”

Overall, college-educated voters––especially white ones––tend to have social and cultural values to the left of the average Democrat.

Education polarization is happening in many postindustrial democratic countries, not just the US.

Across 21 countries, parties on the left lost most with voters with high incomes, but low education, and gained most among those with high income, high education. The new base is those whose education is relatively high and income is relatively low. This is especially concentrated among younger citizens who are more likely to be universally educated, and there is an especially strong preference for the Democratic Party among voters with postgraduate education.

As of 2022, only 37.7% of Americans had a college degree or higher.

These trends could also create a new kind of educational spectrum, based not just on whether or not someone attended college but on selection for other attributes: “How far did you go away from your hometown to go to college? How elite of a college did you go to? Did you go to graduate school?”

Latinos “find it increasingly difficult to relate to…a white, educated, progressive Democratic Party.”

Increasing education rates, particularly among Latinas (33% women vs. 26% men college graduation rates), could further deepen the existing gender gap.

The Democratic Party represents groups who have “willingly adapted to a complex world where the social value of education is rising, credentialed specialists hold increased influence over policymaking, and the broader national culture has moved in a predominantly liberal direction.” The increasing power of education has provoked a skeptical view of meritocracy within the right.