Record high independent identification (43%) and Democratic Party identification at historic lows (27%) indicate party vulnerability. Traditional party structures appear increasingly misaligned with voter concerns, particularly among younger generations, and since the November 2024 election, there has been an absence of leadership and cohesive messaging from the Democratic Party.

Research shows rising demographics of independent voters, especially younger independents, with 52% of surveyed Gen Z-ers identifying as independents.

“More and more Americans identifying as ‘no party’ voters; I, myself, have not been registered with a party since 2021.”

The American party system encourages effective polarization in the mass public. Not since the 1880s have the two major parties consistently been so evenly matched on the national level. (Grossmann & Hopkins, 2024, pp. 115-125) Yet, we are witnessing growing detachment from traditional party structures, particularly among younger voters. This movement toward independence, combined with increasing ideological fluidity (51% describe themselves as near the ideological middle), suggests the potential for new political alignments that transcend traditional party boundaries.

There is an  “emerging class of people who espouse certain progressive values (marriage equality, abortion rights, climate change) while opposing others (trans rights, DEI, and for some, the very idea of democracy)—what Pew Research has called the "Ambivalent Right…Mirroring the rise of the "Ambivalent Right", perhaps we'll see an "Insular Left" that is anti-immigration and pro-protectionism, but favors progressive social values, stronger government, and tougher corporate regulation. This group would bleed away voters from MAGA just as the Ambivalent Right has probably bled voters away from the Democrats, meaning that the two-party balance may not alter much, only the parties' platforms may evolve”

“Government is failing because politics is failing. And politics is failing because we are stuck in a zero-sum, degraded, two-party doom loop, to steal Lee Drutman's phrase, that is characterized above all by negative partisanship. If we want government to succeed in helping to solve public problems, then we simply must find a way to a multi-party democracy. It's not impossible, but it's not going to happen by itself. It means changing the rules of the party system, which, fortunately, is not only popular but doable.”

“Anti-Zionist Jews and other further-to-far Left Jews are going to continue to challenge expectations about Jewish alignment with the Democratic party and traditional support for liberal democracy. This group is much more likely to cast protest votes or abstain on principle. I think the same is true for Gen Z progressives, who increasingly see the system itself as failing them. I've heard of this segment as flirting with or more inclined toward "justice authoritarianism," where justice outcomes are pursued by any means necessary, even if not possible in a functioning democracy.”